Cash in bank · 12 months
Lowest point £7,600 in M1 · never goes negative
Scenario
Most cash at risk
£7,600
Survives the year?
Yes
Starting capital£10,000
Average order value£69
Cost per unit (COGS)£20
First production run120 units
Return / refund rate8%
Fixed costs / month£80
Reinvest sales into restock
Use incoming cash to fund the next production run
Ad spend / month£500
Starting cost per customer£18
CAC drift per spend doubling30%
How much more expensive customers get as you scale ads
Scale ads +25% / month
Organic orders / month12
Organic growth / month15%
Repeat purchase rate15%
Extra orders per repeat1.5
VAT 20%. Tax is simplified in this prototype and not full accounting.